Sony not expecting this gen to last as long as the last one

[DPatel304]

"What we do know is that the uptake [of the PS4] is going to be very sharp," said Gara. "Does that mean this is going to be a much bigger cycle? Maybe. Or it might mean that it's just a bit more compressed into the first few years, that the latter years are a little softer."

I'm honestly surprised. I would have expected the PS4 to have as long of a life cycle as the PS3, if not more. I realize last generation was pretty long, but it benefits Sony, MS, and Nintendo to have a longer lifecycle (unless the console is like the OG Xbox that just never made any money).

Plus the graphical leap just shrinks each generation, which just makes each new generation less desirable. Even though PS4 and X1 are out, I still feel like the 360 and PS3 are solid gaming machines. I didn't have that feeling with the PS1 and PS2. When the PS2 replaced the PS1, the PS1 just looked so damn dated in comparison. Same with the PS3 replacing the PS2. I still feel that way a tad with the PS4 replacing the PS3, but not as much as I did in previous generations, and with each new generation that feeling just becomes less and less.

Source: Metro.co.uk

 

[Tomba]

I believe this generation will last roughly as long. The main thing that warrants advancing to the next generation is advancing graphical ability than anything else. The rest of the stuff added is just to warrant releasing a whole new console that has gotten to the point of being a more powerful version of the last console.

Graphics would have to be really significant in the next generation for the consoles to start coming out sooner.

 

[sidd230]

Kinda of sucks, long gens are actually better, if this gen would not of lasted as long as it did Sony would not be where they are now because they would of been dead last by a vast number and the games that really defined this gen were all produced in the last three years.

 

[corporatenoun]

Isn't Microsoft expecting and planning around a 10 year shelf life?

I think the only way we'll see a PS5 in the next 5 years is if the PS4 severely under-performs AND new competition arrives on the market. The Steam Machine is the only new console competition on the horizon, and early PS4 sales are a great indication of its success. I don't see this generation being very short.

 

[Ghost_of_Crash]

This will be your usual 7-8 year generation mainly for the exact reasons stated above. There would have to be some sort of significant direction for graphics to go since that generally ends up being the visible measuring stick for a generation, Sony usually doesn't pick up and define its consoles until roughly 2 or 3 years in and really show what the console is capable of until the middle of the console's life cycle, and the PS4 would have to under perform greatly.

While Sony doesn't push all its chips on the success of the PS4, they need for it to be successful in the way of turning a consistent profit and over perform and the PS brand itself needs to be successful because unless I don't see Sony bowing out of films and music in the entertainment department if they need to haul some cargo overboard.

 

[Linkzelda41]

If one thing is obvious, the push for having games emulating reality to cater to all sorts of desires people aren’t able to fulfill is still there. There’s always going to be skepticism, even from the higher ups that are part of the gaming industry, but something to consider is that the future for other consoles will be considered renovations rather than innovations.

With how much time it takes to install some games, it’s clear that the more they push pixels, the more things like RAM and such will be required just to have a decent game time. Whenever I see debates on how the future for consoles is a bit shaky, I always look back to how 2GB RAM or even 4GB RAM was considered overkill and laugh back at it comparing to the present.

I admit though that with the PS3 and 360, there are already games that will end up being a nostalgia trip for most as the years pass. And honestly, I may end up buying really old games that I was skeptical of getting and end up truly admiring the experience.

 

[Plunkd]

They haven't even begun to completely utilize the power of the PS3 yet. The PS4 is steps ahead of that as well. This generation should last a decade. What we're seeing now is vastly different from what we'll be seeing in 5 or 10 years from now in terms of game play, graphics, depthness of the models and worlds, etc.

 

[WarriorSoldier]

I have had my ps3, fat one, since day 1 of launch of ps3. It freezes sometimes but it's working perfectly. I love it! I'm sure ps4 will go for 5-10 years easy.

 

[mareebaybay]

I assumed they would try to make it a lenghter console in terms of life span. I mean there was not much room for fixing but more of perfecting.

 

[Stuck_X_Button]

This generation will be about the same length, we'll get the console defining titles on PS4 towards the middle of the life cycle, later on some adequate titles get mixed in with the strong titles and so on.

 

[Kosh]

Less than a month out of the gate, it's hard to predict the product life cycle.. They can have their projections, but at the end of the day it comes down to:

1) Consumer demand
2) Technological advances (big one)

If there is little in the way of development in processing, graphics, etc... this could last 5-7 years.

I'd say 6 years is a good benchmark. But it is something to revisit and discuss in a year or two.. Too early now without knowing what sort of tech will be available then.

 

[SerraGirl]

Oh you guys know it'll last a long time. My uncles ps3 has lasted him since day 2 of launch. I got mine a year later and had to sell my first one for a slim cause the fat one was out of style LOLS

 

[Thrix]

Technology is developing more rapid than ever. In 3-4 years, today's high-end hardware will be considered "meh".
So I'm guessing those are realistic statements. It's good that they are aware of that.

 

[The Unlosing Ranger]

I think this gen will last around the same time as the previous, honestly. Also, people that say the jump from PS3/360 to PS4/X1 isn't that big haven't seen their respective exclusives with their own eyes

 

[Tomba]

I say even if there are technological advances (as in applicable ones) in the next couple of years this generation will still carry on for the same amount of time. New advances that could be applied to a console just means they'll start testing it out and applying them to the next console in development.

Honestly, until we get to the point where you have to jack into the PS7 (become one with it) and go into a dream-like state while you're playing the game and your trophies are...digitally put on your skin like some sort of yakuza tattoo, the bumps in graphics aren't really enough to throw out an entirely new console. Just "All the stuff we said about graphics for the past two decades or so: forget it. Now you will actually be IN THE GAME. Any damage you take, you'll feel it. If you die in this game, you die in real life. This is a hardcore console that doesn't f*** around, people."

Speaking of advances, something that power downs the console automatically after an amount of time would've been good for people who feel they've become dependent on playing the console or to manage kids' gameplay. Maybe have settings where it can lock the gameplay element for 2 or 3 hours at a time. That would've been something unique to me.

 

[DrRipley]

I'm assuming those are just projections, but even if they were true, I wouldn't be too surprised. Technology just moves so fast now, so it wouldn't be too far off to say that in a few years the hardware would be outdated, even if they can and probably still will keep churning out games via new versions of the console way beyond this time frame like all other older consoles. The upside of all of this, in my opinion, is that the PS4 is at least significantly cheaper than the PS3 from the beginning.

 

[Ghost_of_Crash]

That's a big upside. Sony learned from the PS3's launch and worked on making a console that was better and more wallet friendly.

 

[WarriorSoldier]

Sony DID learn a lot from PS3 though and their mistakes and their strengths.

 

[SpaceTiger]

Honestly, until we get to the point where you have to jack into the PS7 (become one with it) and go into a dream-like state while you're playing the game and your trophies are...digitally put on your skin like some sort of yakuza tattoo, the bumps in graphics aren't really enough to throw out an entirely new console. Just "All the stuff we said about graphics for the past two decades or so: forget it. Now you will actually be IN THE GAME. Any damage you take, you'll feel it. If you die in this game, you die in real life. This is a hardcore console that doesn't f*** around, people."

That would be the end all of game consoles for when Sony is tired of making them. Would come with a "Death and Dismemberment" waiver at the beginning of the game which would let you know that you signed it upon buying the console.

Speaking of advances, something that power downs the console automatically after an amount of time would've been good for people who feel they've become dependent on playing the console or to manage kids' gameplay. Maybe have settings where it can lock the gameplay element for 2 or 3 hours at a time. That would've been something unique to me.

This is a good idea. I believe there are kid's tablets--like Leapfrog or whatever--that have a similar function.

 

[MorgUK]

Good! The fact we had to wait so long for new consoles really did my head in. I am surprised though, considering they lasted 7 years previously then why not again? Is it because there is more competition from PC's and constant graphics updates? But that's always been the case? I don't know what's changed.